Bitcoin's death cross pattern persists as price drops to $83,383—the lowest since December. ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment pressure the setup lower.

Bitcoin Death Cross Deepens as Price Drops to $83K

Bitcoin plunged 6.4% on January 29th to an intraday low of $83,383, marking its weakest level in over two months and reinforcing the bearish death cross pattern that formed in mid-November 2025. The selloff was accompanied by $1.1 billion in outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling institutional investors are stepping back amid mounting macro uncertainty.

A death cross occurs when the short-term 50-day exponential moving average crosses below the longer-term 200-day EMA—a pattern widely viewed by technical traders as a bearish signal indicating deteriorating momentum. Bitcoin's death cross materialized on November 16th when the price was trading around $93,000, roughly six weeks after BTC hit its all-time high near $126,000 in early October.

Since then, the pattern has remained stubbornly in place despite brief escapes above the 200-day EMA. In early January, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the 200-day moving average for the first time since October, sparking optimism that the death cross might resolve into a golden cross—the bullish counterpart where the 50-day crosses back above the 200-day. However, the rally stalled below $95,000, and Bitcoin has since fallen back below both major moving averages.

The current technical structure is deteriorating. Bitcoin now trades below the 100-day EMA around $96,000 and the 200-day EMA near $99,500, both of which have flipped from support to resistance. Immediate support sits at $88,000-$89,000, a level that has held multiple tests in recent weeks. If that zone breaks, the next major support doesn't appear until $74,000-$76,000, aligned with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and a price area where Bitcoin spent minimal time during its 2025 rally.

Historical data compiled by analyst Ali Martinez shows that Bitcoin declined after 7 of the 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, with drops ranging from 6% to 29%. The average post-meeting decline was approximately 9%. With the Federal Reserve's January decision concluded yesterday and Bitcoin already down over 30% from its all-time highs, the question is whether the worst is over or if further downside awaits.

What makes this death cross particularly concerning is the macro environment. Geopolitical tensions have escalated sharply, with President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Canadian imports, deploying naval forces toward Iran, and risking another government shutdown. These developments have driven capital into safe-haven assets like gold, which recently surged above $4,400 per ounce, while risk assets like Bitcoin and equities sold off.

ETF flows reflect this shift in sentiment. After recording $1.2 billion in inflows during the first two trading days of January—the largest since October—Bitcoin ETFs immediately reversed with $243 million in outflows on day three, followed by $476 million the next day and culminating in yesterday's $1.1 billion exodus. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $1.26 billion in net outflows during mid-November when the death cross first formed.

On-chain data adds another layer of concern. Long-term holders who accumulated Bitcoin before 2023 have been taking profits after gains exceeding 200%. These structural sell flows, combined with thinning liquidity and leveraged position liquidations, have amplified downside volatility.

For bulls, the path forward is clear but challenging: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $94,000 with strong volume and ideally see the Average Directional Index (ADX) rise above 25 to confirm genuine momentum. If BTC can string together multiple daily closes above $95,000, it could escape the death cross formation and potentially set up a golden cross, which traders view as a major bullish signal for sustained uptrends.

However, death crosses don't guarantee disaster. Historical analysis shows that returns in the first three weeks after a death cross are roughly 50/50 between gains and losses, with average recoveries of 15-26% occurring two to three months later. The 2022 death cross correctly predicted a prolonged bear market, but crosses in 2023 and mid-2025 preceded rallies of 213% and 75%, respectively, suggesting the pattern is often a lagging indicator.

For now, Bitcoin remains trapped in a bearish technical structure with deteriorating momentum, weakening institutional support, and an increasingly hostile macro backdrop. Whether this resolves into a deeper correction toward $74K or a bear-trap reversal depends on whether buyers can reclaim critical levels with conviction—and whether the broader market regains its appetite for risk.