China and Brazil lead the BRICS gold rush with a $1.88B purchase in one month. Morgan Stanley raises its 2026 gold price target to $4,800/oz.
The Gold Standard 2.0: BRICS Accumulation and the $4,800 Forecast
The Great Reserve Realignment
In the first week of January 2026, the global financial architecture is undergoing a quiet but profound transformation. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC), China and Brazil—two core pillars of the BRICS economic bloc—have collectively acquired 12 tonnes of gold, worth approximately $1.88 billion, in a single month.
Why the BRICS Bloc is "Bullion Hungry"
This surge in gold accumulation is not merely a hedge against inflation; it is a strategic maneuver to build a parallel financial infrastructure.
- China’s 13-Month Streak: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has now reported gold purchases for over a year straight, lifting its official holdings to approximately 2,305 tonnes.
- Brazil’s Strategic Pivot: Brazil’s recent purchase marks its most aggressive move since 2021, signaling that the "Greenback" is no longer the sole anchor for the Real.
- The "Hard Money" Era: As noted by mining investor Frank Giustra, the world is shifting from "paper gold" (ETFs and futures) to physical vaulting. BRICS nations now control nearly 50% of global gold production, giving them unprecedented leverage over the metals market.
Morgan Stanley’s $4,800 Prediction
While some analysts predicted a "cool-off" after gold's record-breaking 2025, Morgan Stanley has done the opposite. In a research note dated January 5, 2026, the bank raised its price target to $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The bank’s bullishness is rooted in three core catalysts:
- Federal Reserve Transition: Potential leadership changes at the Fed are expected to accelerate policy easing, weakening the US Dollar Index (DXY) below the critical 98 level.
- Negative Real Yields: As the Fed cuts rates to battle a "shallow slip" in the economy, the opportunity cost of holding gold disappears.
- The "Safety Multiplier": Ongoing geopolitical friction—ranging from tensions in Venezuela to China-Japan rare earth disputes—is creating a constant floor of safe-haven demand.
Conclusion: Gold as the Ultimate Anchor
Gold ended 2025 with a 64% gain, its strongest performance since 1979. With major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America aligning on a "higher-for-longer" gold price, the precious metal is reclaiming its role as the fundamental anchor of monetary trust in a multipolar world.
0 Comments