SOL is retesting key resistance with less volatility than before, but weakening on-chain metrics complicate the bullish technical setup.
Solana's back at a level that's caused trouble before, but this time the reaction looks different. The $141–$145 resistance zone has historically triggered sharp 15–16% pullbacks, yet the recent approach saw only a 3–4% dip before demand reappeared. That's not a minor detail—it suggests the seller exhaustion that plagued this level earlier might be easing.
Technically, SOL is in one of its cleanest setups since September, trading above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. When all four align like this, it usually means the asset has cleared enough overhead resistance to make a run. But the technicals are only part of the story.
What stood out to me is the divergence in on-chain activity. New wallet creation has collapsed from roughly 30 million per week during previous rallies to just 7 million now. That's a 75% drop in network growth, and it complicates the bullish narrative. Strong price action with weak fundamentals can work for a while, especially if it's driven by technical positioning or short covering, but it's not usually sustainable without underlying demand to support it.
So we're left with a setup that looks good on the chart but questionable beneath the surface. A high-volume daily close above $145 would likely open the door to $165–$180, but without a pickup in on-chain engagement, there's a real risk this just turns into another range where SOL consolidates while waiting for activity to catch up. Or it doesn't, and the technical strength fades.
For now, the next few sessions matter more than usual.
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