Spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted $1.42B inflows as whale selling cooled. But for most of 2025, institutional capital flowed into gold while BTC stalled under $100k.
Why Institutions Chose Gold Over Bitcoin in 2025—Until Now
For the better part of this year, institutional capital made a choice—and it wasn't Bitcoin. CryptoQuant's tracking shows a clear behavioral split: while $BTC traded below $100,000 and consolidated through choppy conditions, gold surged to record highs and absorbed the bulk of cautious institutional flows. The divergence wasn't theoretical. It showed up in allocation data, in ETF activity, and in how risk was being priced across macro-sensitive assets.
Then something shifted last week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.42 billion—the strongest weekly inflow since early October. That's not noise. It's the first sustained return of capital through regulated products in months, and it coincided with two key changes: whale selling activity cooled off noticeably, and Bitcoin's effective circulating supply tightened as fewer coins moved to exchanges.
What stands out to me isn't just the dollar figure—it's the mechanism. Institutions didn't rotate back into Bitcoin through OTC desks or direct accumulation. They came back through ETFs, which suggests this is cautious, compliance-driven reentry, not speculative risk-on behavior. The fact that it only happened after distribution pressure eased tells you the flow was conditional, not confident.
Gold's outperformance earlier this year reflected a specific mood: uncertainty, inflation hedging, and a preference for the known over the volatile. Bitcoin's recent ETF inflows suggest that mood might be softening—but it's early, and the capital is still testing the water, not diving in.
0 Comments