XRP consolidates near $2 support as social mentions surpass Ethereum. ETF inflows continue, exchange reserves drop—quiet accumulation or false signal?
XRP Market Analysis: $2 Support Test & Social Momentum Shift
XRP's been trading in a tight range around $2 for the better part of a month, but the more interesting story is happening off-chain. According to data from X's head of product, XRP mentions have consistently outpaced Ethereum since December, which is unusual. Ethereum typically dominates social discussions outside of Bitcoin—when that flips, it's worth paying attention.
The numbers behind this aren't just retail chatter. Spot XRP ETFs pulled in nearly $100 million during early January, bringing cumulative inflows to $1.37 billion without recording a single outflow day since their late 2025 launch. That's a very different pattern from what we've seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have had multiple days of net redemptions. Meanwhile, XRP reserves on Binance dropped to their lowest levels in two years, suggesting supply is being pulled off exchanges rather than accumulated there.
What stood out to me in the cost basis distribution heatmap was the concentration between $1.96 and $2.00. That's not just technical support—it's where a large chunk of current holders entered. As long as that zone holds, the setup remains structurally intact. The comparison to January 2025 keeps getting mentioned, and for good reason. Back then, XRP consolidated for weeks before a 40% explosive move higher. Similar conditions: sideways price action, declining volatility, gradual volume increase without spikes.
Here's the thing though—patterns repeat until they don't. The $2.18 resistance level has been tested multiple times without a clean break. If buyers can reclaim that zone with volume, the path opens toward the $2.40-$2.60 range. If not, and if $1.96 support cracks, we're likely looking at a retest of the $1.77 lows. The social metrics and ETF data suggest positioning is happening, but positioning doesn't guarantee direction—it just shows conviction is building on one side.
0 Comments