On-chain data shows 1,000+ BTC entities quietly expanding during the dip, while retail sells. The divergence is worth understanding.
Bitcoin Whales Are Buying While Retail Sells
There's a particular kind of market dynamic that tends to go unnoticed until it's already over. No headlines, no volume spikes, no viral charts. Just a slow, steady shift in who's holding what — and right now, Glassnode's on-chain data is showing exactly that.
The number of unique entities holding at least 1,000 BTC has risen from 1,207 in October to 1,303 through late January 2026. That's nearly 100 new large-scale holders entering or expanding positions during the same period that Bitcoin corrected from its highs and retail participants — particularly wallets under 10 BTC — were actively distributing. The divergence isn't subtle. It's written directly in the Accumulation Trend Score, where smaller cohorts sit firmly in selling territory while larger ones move toward neutral or mild accumulation.
What makes this interesting isn't the number itself. It's the context.
The last time this specific cohort showed comparable growth was January 2024, when the entity count moved from 1,380 to 1,512 ahead of the U.S. spot ETF approval. Bitcoin went on to rally significantly in the months that followed. Before that, similar accumulation behavior preceded the late 2020 and mid-2023 breakout phases. The pattern isn't bulletproof — correlation isn't causation, and any analyst who tells you large holder accumulation guarantees a rally is oversimplifying — but it's a signal that carries historical weight.
What's also worth noting is the behavior at the very top of the size distribution. Entities holding more than 10,000 BTC, the kind of wallets associated with institutional treasuries, ETF custodians, and long-term sovereign-adjacent holders, have moved from active distribution to a neutral-to-light accumulation posture. They were heavy sellers when Bitcoin was above $100,000. That behavior has clearly shifted.
On the exchange side, CryptoQuant data showed BTC outflows from centralized exchanges hitting their highest level in two years by the 100-day moving average. Coins leaving exchanges typically means holders are moving assets to cold storage — a behavioral signal associated with longer time horizons, not short-term trading intent.
Retail, meanwhile, is doing what retail tends to do in periods of uncertainty: reducing exposure. The Fear and Greed Index has been oscillating between fear and extreme fear for weeks. Smaller wallets are cutting positions. And larger hands are quietly on the other side of those trades.
None of this tells you exactly when or at what price the next significant move happens. On-chain data is structural, not predictive in the short term. But there's something worth sitting with here — the entities absorbing coins right now are not doing it impulsively. These are deliberate, sizable allocations into a market that most casual observers currently consider broken or stalled.
The quiet ones are usually the ones you should watch.